Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ligorna · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ligorna 1-2 Bra
Original prediction
Ligorna
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 55.3% | 42.5% | -12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.3% | 27.8% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.53 | 19.4% | 29.7% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Ligorna
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Ligorna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LigornaWWWWL
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BraDWLDL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LigornaBra
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.44xG1.23