Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liège · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liège 1-2 Dender
Original prediction
Liège
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 33.8% | 37.5% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.3% | 27.3% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 38.9% | 35.2% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Liège
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Liège has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LiègeWLDWW
GF 18 · GA 4 · avg 3.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
DenderWLLLD
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
LiègeDender
66.7Attack33.3
33.3Defence83.3
50.0Form50.0
53.0Power56.2
1.50xG1.34