Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dender · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Liège are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWDL), averaging 3.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Dender are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Dender hold a 7.2-point power-rating edge (54.9 v 62.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.1% in the Challenger Pro League, while Dender holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dender
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
13.1%
Dender has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 2 · avg 3.00/0.40
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40