Liechtensteinvs
Lithuania
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/24/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lithuania · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liechtenstein 0-2 Lithuania
Original prediction
Lithuania
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 12.70 | 7.4% | 36.3% | 28.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.68 | 20.1% | 25.8% | 5.7 pts |
| Away | 1.30 | 72.5% | 38.0% | -34.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-34.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Lithuania
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Lithuania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60