Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lidingö · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lidingö 2-1 Helges
Original prediction
Lidingö
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.0% | 57.7% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.2% | 20.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 27.8% | 21.4% | -6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Lidingö
Probability
57.7%
Model confidence
57.7%
Lidingö has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LidingöLLLLW
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
HelgesDDLLL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LidingöHelges
35.0Attack26.7
36.7Defence18.3
23.3Form16.7
34.5Power23.7
1.94xG1.01