Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Libya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Libya 2-2 Botswana
Original prediction
Libya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 58.1% | 43.8% | -14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.9% | 29.0% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 6.05 | 15.1% | 27.2% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.39 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Libya
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Libya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LibyaDDWDW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BotswanaWLDDD
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LibyaBotswana
8.3Attack16.7
50.0Defence50.0
25.0Form8.3
31.6Power28.6
1.12xG0.92