Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Libya U23 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Libya U23 3-1 Togo U23
Original prediction
Libya U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.0% | 40.3% | -8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.4% | 29.1% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 24.6% | 30.6% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Libya U23
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Libya U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Libya U23D
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 0/1
Togo U23D
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 0/1
Libya U23Togo U23
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.22xG1.03