Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Libertas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Libertas 1-1 Faetano
Original prediction
Libertas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 59.2% | 52.0% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.2% | 25.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 5.37 | 16.6% | 22.9% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Libertas
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Libertas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LibertasLLWDD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
FaetanoDLLLL
GF 1 · GA 13 · avg 0.20/2.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
LibertasFaetano
33.3Attack0.0
55.6Defence11.1
44.4Form11.1
47.5Power13.5
1.86xG1.02