Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Libertad · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Libertad are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Manta FC are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Libertad hold a 14.9-point power-rating edge (50.3 v 35.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 23.4% in the Liga Pro, while Libertad holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Libertad
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
23.4%
Libertad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20