Libertadvs
Leones del Norte
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Libertad 0-0 Leones del Norte, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Libertad 3-0 Leones del Norte
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 37.9% | 36.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.5% | 33.1% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 31.6% | 30.3% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Projected Score
Libertad 0–0 Leones del Norte
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.1%
Model confidence
36.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LibertadWLWDL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Leones del NorteDLDWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
LibertadLeones del Norte
37.6Attack33.3
62.4Defence67.7
47.3Form46.2
51.4Power50.9
0.78xG0.68