Libertadvs
Independiente del Valle
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 9/13/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente del Valle · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Libertad 2-3 Independiente del Valle
Original prediction
Independiente del Valle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.89 | 23.5% | 18.9% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.6% | 24.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.83 | 49.9% | 56.9% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Independiente del Valle
Probability
56.9%
Model confidence
56.9%
Independiente del Valle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60