Libertadvs
Guayaquil City FC
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 10/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Libertad · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Libertad 0-0 Guayaquil City FC, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Libertad 4-0 Guayaquil City FC
Original prediction
Libertad
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 47.6% | 44.5% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.6% | 29.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.80 | 23.8% | 26.2% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Projected Score
Libertad 0–0 Guayaquil City FC
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Libertad
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Libertad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LibertadWWLWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Guayaquil City FCWDWLL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LibertadGuayaquil City FC
39.6Attack38.5
63.5Defence59.4
49.0Form44.8
52.7Power50.1
1.04xG0.76