Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Libertad · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Libertad 0-0 Emelec, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Libertad 1-1 Emelec
Original prediction
Libertad
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 40.4% | 43.6% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 30.1% | 32.2% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.10 | 29.5% | 24.2% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Projected Score
Libertad 0–0 Emelec
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Libertad
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Libertad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LibertadLWDWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EmelecWLWDL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LibertadEmelec
35.8Attack28.4
63.0Defence60.5
45.7Form43.2
50.4Power46.3
0.92xG0.57