Libertad Asuncionvs
Tigre
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 7/14/2023, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Libertad Asuncion are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Tigre are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Libertad Asuncion hold a 5.1-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 53.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20