Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mali · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liberia 0-1 Mali
Original prediction
Mali
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.54 | 13.9% | 26.0% | 12.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.3% | 27.1% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.47 | 61.8% | 46.9% | -14.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Mali
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Mali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LiberiaLWLDL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MaliWLDDL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LiberiaMali
33.3Attack100.0
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form100.0
15.3Power88.7
1.11xG1.56