GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/3/2024, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leyton Orient · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Leyton Orient are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Arsenal U21 are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Arsenal U21 hold a 6.8-point power-rating edge (32.9 v 39.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Leyton Orient holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 77% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leyton Orient

Probability

38.4%

Model confidence

38.4%

Leyton Orient has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Leyton OrientLWLLW

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Arsenal U21LLLLL

GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Leyton OrientArsenal U21
44.4Attack75.0
33.3Defence16.7
11.1Form33.3
32.9Power39.7
2.11xG2.05
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