Lexington Wvs
Tampa Bay Sun W
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Super League · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington W · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lexington W 2-1 Tampa Bay Sun W
Original prediction
Lexington W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 49.4% | 52.8% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.4% | 25.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.65 | 24.2% | 22.0% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Lexington W
Probability
52.8%
Model confidence
52.8%
Lexington W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40