Lexington Wvs
Sporting JAX W
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Super League · 10/23/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lexington W 3-3 Sporting JAX W
Original prediction
Lexington W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 32.8% | 41.5% | 8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.1% | 25.9% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 39.1% | 32.6% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Lexington W
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Lexington W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80