GGOALVIO

USA · USL League One Cup · 4/28/2024, 8:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Lexington · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Lexington are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Forward Madison are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lexington hold a 14.6-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 34.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.4% in the USL League One Cup, while Lexington holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Lexington

Probability

47.4%

Model confidence

47.4%

Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

LexingtonDLLLW

GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Forward MadisonDWDDL

GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LexingtonForward Madison
58.3Attack50.0
41.7Defence16.7
41.7Form25.0
48.8Power34.2
2.16xG1.36
View match centre →