Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lexington 0-0 FC Tulsa
Original prediction
Lexington
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 55.5% | 45.1% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.7% | 28.2% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 4.62 | 19.8% | 26.7% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.71 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LexingtonWWWWL
GF 18 · GA 7 · avg 3.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
FC TulsaDWDDL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
LexingtonFC Tulsa
60.5Attack39.5
59.3Defence69.1
53.1Form51.9
57.1Power54.8
1.21xG0.88