Lexingtonvs
El Paso Locomotive
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lexington 3-1 El Paso Locomotive
Original prediction
Lexington
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 48.2% | 42.3% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.9% | 26.0% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.40 | 27.0% | 31.7% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00