Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lewes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lewes 1-0 Whitehawk
Original prediction
Lewes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 46.3% | 60.0% | 13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.9% | 20.6% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 29.8% | 19.4% | -10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Lewes
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
Lewes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LewesLLWLL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
WhitehawkLWWLL
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
LewesWhitehawk
51.9Attack37.0
59.3Defence22.2
59.3Form18.5
57.2Power29.3
2.78xG0.82