Lewesvs
Carshalton Athletic
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Isthmian · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carshalton Athletic · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lewes 3-0 Carshalton Athletic
Original prediction
Carshalton Athletic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 30.9% | 35.4% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.2% | 25.5% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 43.9% | 39.1% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–08%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Carshalton Athletic
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Carshalton Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80