Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sevilla · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Levante 3-3 Sevilla
Original prediction
Sevilla
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 34.8% | 30.8% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.9% | 26.2% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 35.3% | 43.0% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Sevilla
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Sevilla has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LevanteLLDWD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SevillaLLWWD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LevanteSevilla
44.4Attack47.6
33.3Defence57.1
27.8Form61.9
36.6Power58.0
1.22xG1.66