Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Levante 2-4 Barcelona
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13.06 | 7.3% | 21.1% | 13.8 pts |
| Draw | 7.98 | 11.9% | 22.2% | 10.2 pts |
| Away | 1.18 | 80.8% | 56.8% | -24.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LevanteDWDLW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BarcelonaWWWWW
GF 22 · GA 3 · avg 4.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
LevanteBarcelona
41.7Attack100.0
58.3Defence83.3
41.7Form100.0
47.4Power93.2
1.00xG1.71