Levantevs
Athletic Club
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athletic Club · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Levante 3-1 Athletic Club
Original prediction
Athletic Club
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.27 | 29.0% | 33.0% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.6% | 26.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 43.4% | 40.5% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Athletic Club
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Athletic Club has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20