Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morocco · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lesotho 0-2 Morocco
Original prediction
Morocco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 63.03 | 1.5% | 24.9% | 23.4 pts |
| Draw | 12.88 | 7.3% | 24.0% | 16.7 pts |
| Away | 1.03 | 91.2% | 51.2% | -40.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-40.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Morocco
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Morocco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LesothoLLDWD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MoroccoWDWWW
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LesothoMorocco
33.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence100.0
44.4Form100.0
51.1Power88.7
1.06xG1.24