Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Honka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-3
LePa are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Honka are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 4.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Honka hold a 42.7-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 58.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 6.7% in the Suomen Cup, while Honka holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 87% BTTS chance and 90% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Honka
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
6.7%
Honka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60
GF 22 · GA 4 · avg 4.40/0.80