GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 4/19/2025, 1:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Leones Negros UDG are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Venados FC are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 53.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leones Negros UDG

Probability

48.4%

Model confidence

48.4%

Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Leones Negros UDGWLLWW

GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Venados FCWLWDW

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Leones Negros UDGVenados FC
77.8Attack66.7
44.4Defence33.3
66.7Form58.3
63.5Power53.2
2.17xG1.55
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