GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 2/2/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Leones Negros UDG are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDDLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 45.1-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.0% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leones Negros UDG

Probability

64.0%

Model confidence

64.0%

Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Leones Negros UDGDWWWD

GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
TlaxcalaDDDLL

GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Leones Negros UDGTlaxcala
77.8Attack33.3
44.4Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
63.5Power18.3
2.52xG1.11
View match centre →