GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 8/10/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Leones Negros UDG are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Irapuato are 1W-0D-0L in their last 1 (W), averaging 4.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 6 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 12.5-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 51.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leones Negros UDG

Probability

43.8%

Model confidence

43.8%

Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Leones Negros UDGLLLWL

GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
IrapuatoW

GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 4.00/1.00

BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
Leones Negros UDGIrapuato
77.8Attack52.9
44.4Defence52.9
66.7Form47.1
63.5Power51.0
1.83xG1.44
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