GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/5/2025, 1:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Leones Negros UDG are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Dorados are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 4.5-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leones Negros UDG

Probability

39.8%

Model confidence

39.8%

Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Leones Negros UDGLLDDD

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
DoradosLLLLL

GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Leones Negros UDGDorados
77.8Attack66.7
44.4Defence66.7
66.7Form66.7
63.5Power68.0
1.71xG1.51
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