GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 4/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Leones Negros UDG are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Cancún are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 50.3-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 62.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leones Negros UDG

Probability

62.1%

Model confidence

62.1%

Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Leones Negros UDGLWDLD

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
CancúnWWDDD

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Leones Negros UDGCancún
77.8Attack16.7
44.4Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
63.5Power13.2
2.40xG1.10
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