GGOALVIO

Leones Negros UDG logoLeones Negros UDGvsCA La Paz logoCA La Paz

COMPLETED

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/14/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Leones Negros UDG are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while CA La Paz are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 5.6-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 57.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leones Negros UDG

Probability

38.6%

Model confidence

38.6%

Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Leones Negros UDGDDDWW

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
CA La PazWDLDL

GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Leones Negros UDGCA La Paz
77.8Attack75.0
44.4Defence58.3
66.7Form50.0
63.5Power57.9
1.78xG1.65
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