GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 5/6/2024, 12:06:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Leones Negros UDG are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while CA La Paz are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 5.6-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 57.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leones Negros UDG

Probability

38.6%

Model confidence

38.6%

Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Leones Negros UDGDWDWW

GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CA La PazDWWWL

GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Leones Negros UDGCA La Paz
77.8Attack75.0
44.4Defence58.3
66.7Form50.0
63.5Power57.9
1.78xG1.65
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