GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 3/28/2024, 1:05:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Leones Negros UDG are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded, while CA La Paz are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 5.6-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 57.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leones Negros UDG

Probability

38.6%

Model confidence

38.6%

Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Leones Negros UDGWWDDW

GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CA La PazWDLDW

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Leones Negros UDGCA La Paz
77.8Attack75.0
44.4Defence58.3
66.7Form50.0
63.5Power57.9
1.78xG1.65
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