Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Popayan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Leones FC 0-0 Popayan, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leones FC 1-2 Popayan
Original prediction
Popayan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.5% | 28.1% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.5% | 29.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 29.0% | 42.0% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Projected Score
Leones FC 0–0 Popayan
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Popayan
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Popayan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Leones FCDLLLD
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PopayanWDLLL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Leones FCPopayan
20.3Attack34.8
46.4Defence56.1
27.5Form31.8
34.5Power43.3
0.67xG1.04