Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Patriotas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Leones FC 0-0 Patriotas, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leones FC 1-0 Patriotas
Original prediction
Patriotas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 30.2% | 28.8% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.2% | 31.4% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 39.6% | 39.9% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Projected Score
Leones FC 0–0 Patriotas
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Patriotas
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Patriotas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Leones FCDDLLD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
PatriotasDLLLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Leones FCPatriotas
22.2Attack37.0
46.9Defence58.0
25.9Form43.2
34.7Power48.2
0.63xG1.12