Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Leones FC 0-0 Orsomarso, with an exact score probability of 30%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leones FC 1-2 Orsomarso
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 34.9% | 30.0% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.2% | 33.7% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 35.9% | 36.4% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Projected Score
Leones FC 0–0 Orsomarso
Exact score probability: 30%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.7%
Model confidence
36.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Leones FCLWDDL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
OrsomarsoLDWLD
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Leones FCOrsomarso
21.8Attack25.3
49.4Defence65.5
27.6Form35.6
35.9Power44.3
0.52xG0.72