Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leones FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Leones FC 0-0 Depor FC, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leones FC 0-3 Depor FC
Original prediction
Leones FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 50.1% | 37.5% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.4% | 30.5% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 4.04 | 22.5% | 32.0% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.6 pts
Projected Score
Leones FC 0–0 Depor FC
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Leones FC
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Leones FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Leones FCLLDWD
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Depor FCWLDDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Leones FCDepor FC
20.6Attack30.0
47.6Defence46.7
28.6Form23.3
35.3Power36.4
0.83xG0.86