Leones del Nortevs
Libertad
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 10/25/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Leones del Norte 0-0 Libertad, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leones del Norte 4-1 Libertad
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.9% | 33.7% | -12.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.1% | 31.1% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 26.0% | 35.2% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Projected Score
Leones del Norte 0–0 Libertad
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.1%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Leones del NorteLLDLD
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LibertadWWWLW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Leones del NorteLibertad
32.3Attack42.4
63.6Defence64.6
43.4Form50.5
48.3Power54.0
0.72xG0.86