Leones del Nortevs
Emelec
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 10/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leones del Norte · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Leones del Norte 0-0 Emelec, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leones del Norte 1-3 Emelec
Original prediction
Leones del Norte
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.4% | 43.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.5% | 32.9% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.75 | 24.1% | 23.2% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Projected Score
Leones del Norte 0–0 Emelec
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Leones del Norte
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Leones del Norte has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40