Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leon 1-1 Toluca
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.52 | 26.4% | 31.9% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.2% | 27.7% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 48.4% | 40.4% | -8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeonWLDWD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
TolucaDDLLD
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
LeonToluca
51.3Attack71.8
56.4Defence53.8
53.8Form56.4
55.7Power60.9
1.51xG1.74