Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monterrey · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
13%
MediumconfidenceLeon are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Monterrey are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and monterrey hold a 21.1-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 64.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Liga MX, favouring Monterrey with 13.2% confidence, a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monterrey
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
13.2%
Monterrey has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeonWWWLL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MonterreyWLWLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LeonMonterrey
33.3Attack66.7
55.6Defence55.6
33.3Form66.7
43.7Power64.7
1.27xG1.51