Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leon · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Leon 2-0 FC Juarez, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leon 2-1 FC Juarez
Original prediction
Leon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 60.4% | 73.6% | 13.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.9% | 16.7% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 5.57 | 16.7% | 9.7% | -7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.2 pts
Projected Score
Leon 2–0 FC Juarez
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Leon
Probability
73.6%
Model confidence
73.6%
Leon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeonDWLWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
FC JuarezWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LeonFC Juarez
44.4Attack22.2
63.0Defence14.8
51.9Form11.1
55.0Power19.7
2.48xG0.55