Leonvs
Club America
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club America · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leon 3-5 Club America
Original prediction
Club America
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.16 | 29.4% | 27.0% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.7% | 24.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 44.0% | 48.5% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Club America
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Club America has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40