Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leon 0-4 Chievo
Original prediction
Leon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.06 | 29.4% | 36.1% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.2% | 28.5% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 42.4% | 35.4% | -7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Leon
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
36.1%
Leon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeonWWWWL
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ChievoLDLWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LeonChievo
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24