Leonvs
Atletico San Luis
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 9/15/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leon 2-0 Atletico San Luis
Original prediction
Leon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 47.0% | 51.8% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.2% | 24.3% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.8% | 23.8% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Leon
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
Leon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeonLWLDW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Atletico San LuisLWDLD
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LeonAtletico San Luis
42.9Attack38.1
57.1Defence38.1
47.6Form28.6
51.4Power37.1
1.74xG0.97