Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lens 2-1 Paris FC
Original prediction
Paris FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 36.7% | 35.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.6% | 24.6% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 36.7% | 39.8% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Paris FC
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Paris FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LensLWLWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Paris FCWLWDW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LensParis FC
66.7Attack57.1
47.6Defence66.7
47.6Form66.7
54.6Power65.3
1.46xG1.61