Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lens 2-1 Lyon
Original prediction
Lyon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 37.6% | 29.2% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 26.3% | 24.7% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 36.2% | 46.1% | 9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LensWLDWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LyonWWDWD
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LensLyon
60.0Attack66.7
40.0Defence86.7
26.7Form73.3
42.6Power74.7
1.20xG1.91