Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lens · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lens 0-1 Lorient
Original prediction
Lens
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 62.8% | 48.9% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.41 | 21.5% | 25.3% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 6.04 | 15.7% | 25.8% | 10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Lens
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Lens has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LensLWWLD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LorientLDLLW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LensLorient
100.0Attack16.7
33.3Defence66.7
50.0Form16.7
59.3Power36.5
1.76xG1.20